[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N30W 3N46W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
36W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO 25N89W. OTHERWISE THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-26N W OF 93W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF
IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
S INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING THEN STALL ACROSS
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 86W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING TO
THE NE ON SUN. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ACT
TO FRESHEN THE TRADE WINDS E OF THE ISLANDS LATE MON THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N70W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH AND DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM
31N70W 28N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH A WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 550 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 37W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 31N28W AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N25W 31N22W BECOMING COLD ALONG 27N29W TO 28N38W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW COAST
OF CUBA EARLY SAT AND STALL FROM 32N57W TO 25N65W THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 28N BY
LATE SUN. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
MON REACHING FROM 32N72W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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