[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 4N17W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THIS IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO WHICH ARE SPREADING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS PULLING RAPIDLY AWAY TO THE NE
LEAVING VERY FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY W OF 90W AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE SINKING S INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BY SAT MORNING E OF 90W. IT WILL STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND W CUBA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
ISOLATED UNORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER WEAK PRES
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN E
OF 78W. W OF 78W THE TRADE WIND FLOW SPLITS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR E
GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
WRN PANAMA...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA
AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
W ATLC FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW COAST OF CUBA EARLY
SAT...THEN STALL FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADE WINDS E OF THE ANTILLES MON
NIGHT THROUGH WED. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH N
OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 28N BY LATE SUN. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE N OF 29N MON AND TUE AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N73W TO E
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TUE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL




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