[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W ALONG
3N36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IMPACTING
THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WRN
GULF WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TEXAS. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W TO
29N88W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
ALONG 30N92W 29N97W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE
EWD ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DIP S ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA UP CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME STRONG SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA EXTENDING FROM
THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT DUE TO SOME MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE W ATLC WITH
AXIS STILL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 73W-76W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF
HISPANIOLA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IT TO THE E ALONG 68W
WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N55W
TO 23N65W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N36W
TO 21N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 49W SUPPORTING A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...BESIDES NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM W
OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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