[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W
ALONG 2N33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
17W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM N
FLORIDA AT 31N84W ALONG 28N89W TO THE TEXAS COAST AT 29N96W. A
SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS E OF 89W. THE FRONT
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG
82W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WRN GULF WITH
AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS
HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT.
EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DIP S
ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND CONTINUE EWD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA UP CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND PANAMA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT DUE
TO SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE W ATLC WITH
AXIS STILL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A FEW LINES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 32N75W...AND FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS TO 32N72W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE
E ALONG 64W WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 32N52W TO 23N61W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N32W
TO 25N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB
HIGH TO THE N AT 32N39W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH TO THE S AT 28N33W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 45W SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ATLC...BESIDES NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM W OF PORTUGAL
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net