[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N TO
35W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING RAPIDLY
SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ADVANCING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST STRETCHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA...AND IS ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ERN TENNESSEE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED W
OF THE CONVECTION AREA FROM 31N85W TO 27N88W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE.
THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BASIN LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FOUND
NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO AROUND 20N56W...WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. ANIMATED SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT LIFTING N WITH THE
FRONT TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT BETWEEN 42W-56W. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD N OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG 76W.
THIS WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE
THAT MOVED FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N31W...PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL



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