[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W ALONG
3N30W 2N46W TO INLAND BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AND 55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
8W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED NEAR NRN OKLAHOMA WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE
SE GULF ALONG 30N91W TO 23N84W. IT IS SUPPORTING A
DIMINISHING...BUT STILL ACTIVE...SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR TAMPA
FLORIDA AT 28N83W ALONG 24N85W 23N89W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING ABOUT
100 NW OF THE AXIS. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG STORMS IS NEAR S
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 9W-93W. FINALLY...A
STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS NOW REACHED THE NW CARIBBEAN. BESIDES
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION...LITTLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED IN THE SW
GULF WITH ONLY SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
93W-96W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE STRONG NEAR THE AREAS OF
CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THESE BURSTS OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF...AND NEW BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO THE BAHAMAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BEEN PUSHING S AND HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
A SURFACE HIGH CENTER FARTHER E. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 34N40W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N41W 25N49W 20N60W
DISSIPATING TO 20N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E-SE OF
THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 33W SUPPORTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH...A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W...WHICH
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATL ALONG 47N7W CROSSING
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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