[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W
ALONG 1N25W 3N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 6W-9W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF...AN
ACTIVE SQUALL LINE IS STILL IMPACTING THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO
CURRENTLY ALONG 26N81W TO 22N83W...AS OF 0900 UTC. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXTENDING 90 NM TO THE W. MORE SCATTERED...BUT STILL
STRONG...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER SE LOUISIANA FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-92W. BOTH THESE AREAS OF STORMS ARE ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN
MISSOURI. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW
CONUS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
STRONG NEAR THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE SE GULF TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS CUBA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AND THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN LATER
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE W
ATLC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN
PUSHING SE SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT REACHES WRN CUBA ALONG
23N81W TO 22N83W. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER
HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA NEAR A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 8N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA.
SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING
HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE
SQUALL LINE OVER CUBA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 78W
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO
25N78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS TO THE SE ALONG 64W. THIS BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
26N65W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS 80W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. STRONG
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO THE W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 35N37W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 26N45W 22N54W
DISSIPATING TO 19N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 30W
SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N31W...WHICH IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATL ALONG 45N9W CROSSING THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NW AFRICA AND ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 31N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN 28N10W 31N20W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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