[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N10W
TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA HAS A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO THE TX/MEXICO BORDER. E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF
AND SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE SE GULF SAT WHILE
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. A SQUALL LINE IN
THE NE GULF IS SPREADING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OVER N OF 25N E OF 90W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3-4 FT...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT
E TO NE SAT AND SUN AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO PUSHES S OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ONLY A FEW
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4-5 FT ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N44W
TO 22N56W THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 21N/22N W OF 56W TO THE S
BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE DYING
DOWN N OF 23N WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY NON-EXISTENT
E OF 55W. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N70W. FRESH W-NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE N OF 28N THU
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH PAST 29N-30N
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA FRI...AND REACH FROM 31N75W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT... AND FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL



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