[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW AFRICA NEAR 04N07W TO 03N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N19W TO 00N33W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ALONG THE COASTLINE AT EITHER END OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR
06W AND BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM A WEAK ATLC RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
OF THE AREA THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF AND SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE SE GULF SAT WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. SOME COASTAL CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT THIS EVENING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT OTHERWISE
VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 FT W OF 90W AND 2-4 FT E OF 90W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT
E TO NE SAT AND SUN AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO PUSHES S OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 74W. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISH EARLY WED. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-6
FT ACROSS THE REGION...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N52W TO 25N60W
THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 24N-25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS.
WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED SE OF S CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TO ALONG 21N W OF 65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY WED
THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF 70W TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU THROUGH FRI. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED...WHILE WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE N OF 28N WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH PAST 29N-30N THU. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA FRI.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...
AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL




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