[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF AT
6N10W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W 00N47W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY
AIR IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BURST OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N84W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN GULF. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIMS THE
NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN
U.S. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS N OF 25N
ALONG 59W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING
THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N55W 26N70W 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 63W. THE SECOND DISSIPATING FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W TO 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN MOST FRONT ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N34W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 27N15W TO 20N32W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



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