[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S46W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 3W FROM 1N-5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
25W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR IS
ACROSS THE BASIN...A BURST OF CONVECTION STILL REMAINS ALONG THE
NRN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AREAS TO THE S FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
86W-88W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. MAINLY
SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES IN THE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SKIMS THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN
CONUS. MODERATE DRY AIR WITH SOME STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS
ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
62W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FIRST FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK S INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N59W 28N69W 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W ALONG 26N54W 22N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE
AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE WWD MOST FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N34W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 27N15W TO 14N35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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