[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
IVORY COAST AT 5N4W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W
ALONG 2N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ49W TO 3S54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
8W-12W...FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 13W-19W...FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN
25W-28W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. THE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS AROUND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM THE W ATLC. SOME
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT OVER THE NW GULF WITH NO
SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER NRN
FLORIDA. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS IS PRODUCING
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. NONE ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR
24 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF THURSDAY
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE NRN
CARIBBEAN TO THE ERN CONUS. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FAR ERN CARIBBEAN. A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP
OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
85W-90W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE SW CONUS...DOWN MEXICO...AND DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA TO
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
COLOMBIA. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE
CONVECTIVE BURST OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA TO DIE OUT OVER THE
MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING MUCH
OF THIS AREA FREE OF CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E
ALONG 56W EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO
21N60W TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 19N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS N
OF 22N. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS TO THE W ALONG
32N50W 26N55W 24N63W DISSIPATING TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
E ALONG 37W SUPPORTS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
33N32W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC
FROM E OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 20N31W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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