[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W
ALONG 4N35W TO 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. N OF 32N CENTERED OVER SRN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDING SWLY FLOR ALOFT WHICH IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BURSTS HAVE FLARED UP
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS
THE ERN GULF AROUND A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N84W
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND COLOMBIA ARE PRODUCING
SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS N OF 25N ALONG 64W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W TO
27N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N59W TO
26N62W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-60W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR
ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS




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