[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR ALONG 11N15W S ALONG 16N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W 2N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W
INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT OVER W TEXAS INTO N MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER LOW
FLOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE
BROAD UPPER LOW IS AMPLIFYING A NARROW UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE GEORGIA COAST TO BEYOND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH
OVER FLORIDA BAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE E GULF THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC WILL
THEN BUILD W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE W
ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER COSTA RICA TO
COLOMBIA ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COASTLINE BETWEEN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING S TO 24N
BETWEEN 50W AND 77W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N54W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 26N THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF 66W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE SW ATLC S OF 24N W OF 50W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN
20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N60W TO 20N70W LATE TONIGHT THEN FROM
32N47W LATE TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND CONTINUING E AT A
SLOWER PACE. THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE ABOVE FRONT
AND MERGE WITH IT ON TUE. A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BUILD S INTO THE W ATLC ON TUE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING THE BASIN ON FRI AND
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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