[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W
ALONG 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN
35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS N OF 32N CENTERED OVER SRN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
PROVIDING SWLY FLOR ALOFT WHICH IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BURSTS THAT FLARED UP OVERNIGHT
HAVE NOW DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 84W-87W. NEW BURSTS HAVE FORMED THOUGH WITH
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 90W-94W...AND EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 96W-97W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ERN GULF AROUND
A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N85W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND COLOMBIA ARE PRODUCING
SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 66W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N62W TO 26N70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N60W TO 23N68W.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 55W-61W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN
59W-67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E ALONG
27N52W TO 22N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
THE AXIS AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
29N40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N43W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N11W TO 28N21W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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