[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
GUINEA AT 9N3W TO 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W ALONG
2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS N OF 32N CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO DRAWING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL GULF WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-89W...WITH A SMALLER
CLUSTER FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SOME PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM 19N-27N W OF
95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
24N89W TO 18N90W. THIS FEATURE IS MORE A RESULT OF DIURNAL
EFFECTS THAN A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEREFORE A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOT
THE SURFACE TROUGH EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE IN NEAR VICINITY OF EACH
OTHER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ERN GULF AROUND A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N85W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT
OVER ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF OF THE
AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS ALSO SKIMMING THE AREA ALONG 32N67W TO
32N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N65W TO
24N73W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
FARTHER E ALONG 26N53W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS AND WITHIN 175 NM TO THE N. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N37W...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N43W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N19W TO 26N20W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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