[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR ALONG 10N14W TO 4N10W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
ALONG 2N23W 3N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO BRAZIL
NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 1N14W TO 3N18W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 32W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER E KANSAS DOMINATING THE E HALF
OF THE CONUS N OF 30N. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI COVERING THE NW GULF AND DRAWING
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS N MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N TO THE TEXAS BORDER W OF 96W. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT 01/2100 UTC
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N93W TO 22N88W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
19N90W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 86W-92W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH AT
01/2100 UTC NEAR 27N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH MON SHIFTING E INTO THE W
ATLC TUE AND WED THEN SE ON THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG
70W CONTINUING N OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY SW
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-79W. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS
OF HAITI THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING S TO 27N W OF
68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W SW ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 26N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 31W-50W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT
NEAR 31N42W ALONG 30N50W TO 32N55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N52W TO 19N56W. A THIRD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 26W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W 19N19W TO 24N28W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE E TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MON
INTO TUE MOVING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY WED BEFORE
STALLING ON THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC TUE AND WED THEN SE ON THU AND
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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