[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W SW TO 6N16W TO 3N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W AND CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180-240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 17W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W WHERE A MID TO UPPER
LOW IS PRESENT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N WITH DRY AIR TO THE N
BEHIND THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS
NEAR 27N86W WITH A WEAK RIDGE REACHING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
CORPUS CRISTI...MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH REACHES FROM 23N93W TO 19N95W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
TO THE NE-E...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE W
GULF. CORRESPONDING SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF AND 4-7 FT
IN THE W GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW-W FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN ALOFT WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE NE PACIFIC BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESENT
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST AT THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS TO 25 KT WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE 10-20 KT TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF OF THE SE UNITED STATES
COAST REACHING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS TO THE E COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N73W TO 28N76W TO 23N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE SAME
AREA OF CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MON PUSHING THE TROUGH TO THE E AHEAD OF IT. STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE
AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA FROM THE N WHILE INTENSIFYING. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST
FROM 06 UTC TUE THROUGH 18 UTC TUE N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W.
LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 24 FT ALONG 31N/32N WILL PROPAGATE SE
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE ATLC WITH HIGH PRES SINKING SE FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO E OF FLORIDA LATE TUE AND WED. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 29N54W WITH ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS
NEAR IT. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 24N50W TO 20N55W TO
13N58W. ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL...AS
NOTED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO
THE NW THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY




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