[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011110 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N17W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES
FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. DEBRIS BLOW-OFF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WIDESPREAD TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WSW GULF
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
OVER THE COAST OF TAMPICO AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N
W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
ERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N85W...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER...SE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE W OF 87W. LONG RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER AIRMASS IS
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
OBSERVED EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
BACKING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W...
PRODUCING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WRN ATLC PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE W OF 55W. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 32N45W TO 29N54W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE FAR W ATLC. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 23N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED
WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
WEAK 1015 MB LOW WOBBLES AROUND 34N21W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N20W AND EXTENDS WSW ALONG 27N23W
TO 25N33W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY LATE MONDAY. THEN...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE W ATLC WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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