[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N25W TO
7N28W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 24W-30W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N43W TO
10N47W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
17N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES FROM 6N30W
5N38W TO 8N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-14W INCLUDING THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 14/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
EXTENDING ALONG 28N88W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO BRINGING IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER
THE N GULF WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES N OF THE FRONT. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER N GUATEMALA
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S MEXICO INTO THE S GULF S
OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 22N88W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM FORT MEYERS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI EVENING THEN STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARCHING W
THEN SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NW OF THE FRONT AND COMBINE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TUE AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER MEXICAN COAST TUE EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N76W
ALONG 14N80W 17N86W ACROSS GUATEMALA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-79W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND
W OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO PUERTO RICO. A DEVELOPING BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL MEANDER AND DEEPEN THROUGH SUN THEN DRIFT N ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 79W N OF 26N. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS TO THE E NEAR 29N72W AT 14/0300 UTC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE N
TO BEYOND 32N63W INDUCED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 21N51W OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO 10N60W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N32W TO 29N37W
AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N40W TO 22N48W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N AND WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH FROM BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW
COAST OF CUBA SUN THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND DRIFT N MON
THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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