[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N26W TO
7N29W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N44W TO
10N48W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO NEAR 12N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN THE
TROPICAL WAVES FROM 6N33W TO 4N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA S OF 6N W OF 7W...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
12N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
14/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND
TAMPA EXTENDING ALONG 26N89W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N97W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO BRINGING IN DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR OVER THE N GULF WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES N OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE GULF ANCHORED OVER
NE GUATEMALA PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S MEXICO INTO THE
S GULF S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH SAT THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. A
DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE REACHING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N76W
ALONG 15N82W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 17N87W ACROSS
BELIZE/GUATEMALA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 77W AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 80W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-78W. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGH. A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MEANDER AND DEEPEN THROUGH SUN
THEN DRIFT N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE. A TROUGH
ALONG 71W WILL SHIFT W TO 75W THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN DAMPEN OUT.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN THEN
WEAKEN AS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N81W EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N77W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N79W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1006 MB LOW IS TO THE E
NEAR 31N71W AT 14/0900 UTC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE N TO BEYOND 32N63W
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN
63W-70W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BEING INDUCED BY A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W
ALONG 21N50W OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO 10N59W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N40W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
N OF 24N. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N74W TO E
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM
BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY LATE SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON.
THE 1006 MB LOW WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
BERMUDA FROM SAT INTO MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
N FLORIDA COAST WED AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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