[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 140532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
LOW MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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