[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN SEEN MOVING ACROSS AFRICA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
7N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE
REACHING ANY LAND AREAS NOW WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS INTACT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N18W TO 4N32W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND COASTAL BRAZIL
AND COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH
OF 15N86W 19N80W 25N70W 27N60W...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 29N70W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W...TOWARD NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 29N70W...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W...TOWARD NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N86W
19N80W 25N70W 27N60W.A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N70W 20N72W 18N73W...FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CENTRAL HAITI.
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND
WESTERN JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 29N70W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W...TOWARD NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N86W
19N80W 25N70W 27N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 29N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W 25N48W
21N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 26N58W. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N65W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 25N70W AND 28N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 37W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 35N35W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 45W.
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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