[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE
IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 55W-61W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
59W-66W. THE WAVE IS JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS MOVING OVER WRN CUBA.
HOWEVER...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MERGE
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N25W
5N40W 7N58W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOW OFF THE GUINEA COAST FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
17W-20W. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL OVER WRN AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-37W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS W OF
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NWLY-NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY
AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS OFF THE SW
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 15-20 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE
RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 92W S OF 22N CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND S OF 11N
BETWEEN 74W-84W. A HORIZONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR THIS AREA OF
HEAVY STORMS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-71W. B
H01  0.+++0 THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF
75W CENTERED N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW
FORMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES
WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N74W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SW ATLC INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W
WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS...AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 23N72W 18N74W. THE SECOND IS ALONG 21N62W
17N64W. THE SURFACE FEATURES COMBINED THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N
BETWEEN 56W-76W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
55W TO 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 30N49W WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A COUPLE WEAK LOWS. A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR
30N64W...AND A 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E
OF THE LOW CENTERS ALONG 31N56W 26N51W 22N55W. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF
22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
0120.TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 35N36W TO 9N36*-**-+--+.+*-+
W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON








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