[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
53W-58W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W. A RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 20 KT WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE IS JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N25W
3N37W 3N51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE GUINEA COAST FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W. THIS
BURST OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21N-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NWLY-NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY
AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS OFF THE SW COAST
OF FLORIDA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N84W TO
25N83W...AS OF 0300 UTC. 15-20 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND
THE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG
ACTIVITY IS ALSO INLAND ACROSS PANAMA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S
OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-17N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF 75W CENTERED
N OF BRAZIL NEAR 9N54W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
SW ATLC INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W
WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS...AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N68W 20N72...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-75W. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF BRAZIL
NEAR 9N54W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 55W TO 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 29N50W WHICH IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF WEAK
1016 MB SURFACE LOWS NEAR 30N64W...28N60W...AND 31N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THIRD LOW CENTER ALONG 30N52W
27N51W 24N53W 23N56W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 23N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
35N36W TO 9N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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