[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAVE FORMERLY CARRIED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH. IT HAS BEEN TRACKED BACK TO WEST AFRICA...AND IS
NOW APPROACHING TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND HAS LOST MOST OF
ITS CONVECTION...HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS STILL DEPICTED
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TENNESSEE AT 36N84W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS WITH FAIR
WEATHER. 20 KT E WINDS ARE REPORTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA ALONG 13N85W 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS LARGE AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS N AND S OF THE ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE FROM E CUBA TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES
TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND MOST
OF THE BAHAMAS. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N64W...ANOTHER AT 27N60W...AND
ANOTHER AT 32N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 42W-50W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N37W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10W E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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