[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED SINCE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BUT REMAINS
A THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF
13N TO THE COAST VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 72W/73W S OF
13N HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND HAS BEEN
DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 6N23W 4N36W 3N45W 4N52W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE ITCZ E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 26W-42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA EXTENDING FROM 11N57W TO 6N57W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N51W TO
10N58W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N58W TO 9N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO
ALONG THE COAST NEAR 96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. DRY
STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY
LEAVING THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER COVERING THE NE GULF AND GIVING THE W
GULF SE RETURN FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SMOKE FROM FIRES
OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 33N AND THEN SETTLING OVER THE GULF
COASTAL PLAINS WED AND THU. SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO
17N86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W AND THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO SE
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N83W TO
16N79W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GIVING THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND THE DRY AIR OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOWER
PRESSURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N65W SW ALONG 27N76W ACROSS S
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC
WITHIN 225/250 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE SAME AREA KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W EXTENDING TO OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC S OF 27N BETWEEN 43W-75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH
EXTENDING FROM 23N58W ALONG 21N65W TO OVER THE E TIP OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN
45W-75W. A NARROW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
FROM 31N53W TO 24N43W SUPPORTING A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N60W AND A
SECOND 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 27N49W TO 25N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF OF A LINE FROM 27N47W TO 32N50W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL DRIFT W THROUGH LATE WED. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE
N BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND A
WEAK TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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