[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM
13N63W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 7N64NW MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.
WHILE A CLASSIC SIGNATURE IS HARD TO DETECT USING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS N OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA...ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W
TO 7N73W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY ARE
QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE
REMAINS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
SW ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 2N40W 2N50W 3N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 26W-38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE AXIS FROM 10N51W TO 2N56W...GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA S OF 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...RIDGING
REFLECTS OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
ENTIRE GULF. MARINE OBS AND LATEST ASCAT PASS REVEALED ESE WINDS
UP TO 25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HAZY
SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 25N W OF 93W. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS IN THIS REGION INDICATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 SM
WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE BASIN THROUGH
TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AT SURFACE
...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TPW PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VALUES
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION...EXPANDING INTO THE
CENTRAL BASIN. THE CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IN THIS REGION
FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR 15N80W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE COMBINED
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA THAT
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN N OF 12N BETWEEN 68W-83W...ALSO
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND EASTERN CUBA. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 22N68W TO
17N72W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLC FROM A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 37N70W...KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING E-NE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE ATLC...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 64W-77W INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WITHIN THIS
REGION OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM 22N68W TO 17N72W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N57W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 28N60W AND A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 60W TO THE 1015 MB LOW. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH NOR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE EASTERNMOST
LOW ALONG 23N50W TO 20N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ENHANCED BY STRONG
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...COINCIDING WITH A LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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