[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND
EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 13N61W TO NEAR 6N63NW MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.
WHILE A CLASSIC SIGNATURE IS HARD TO DETECT USING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS N OF 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N71W TO
7N73W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE REMAINS
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
SW ALONG 7N20W 4N30W 2N40W 2N50W 3N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 26W-36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS FROM 9N50W TO 1N55W...GENERATING
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA S OF 9N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...RIDGING
REFLECTS OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
ENTIRE GULF. SOME LEFT OVER SEA BREEZE DIURNAL CYCLE CONTINUES
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST S OF
26N E OF 83W. HAZY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHERN MEXICO
WILDFIRES. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW BASIN INDICATED
VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 SM WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT N OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AT SURFACE
...AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN
THIS REGION...EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN...NOTICED ON TPW
PRODUCT. THE CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IN THIS REGION FOCUSES
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
14N83W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THIS SURFACE
FEATURE COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A BROAD
AREA THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN BETWEEN 71W-83W. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN
THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS
IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLC FROM A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 37N70W...KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING E-NE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO
THE ATLC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 22N BETWEEN
62W-72W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N57W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N60W AND A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 27N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 60W TO THE
1015 MB LOW. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH
NOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW ALONG 23N50W TO 20N50W. SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ENHANCED BY
STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...COINCIDING WITH A LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 40N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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