[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION...AS OF 21 UTC A
LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 8N-14N NEAR 150 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. AS OF 21 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN FORMERLY ANALYZED IN THE
NORTHERN COAST OF S AMERICA IS NOW POSITIONED NEAR 63W S OF 14N
AND ENTERING INLAND VENEZUELA. AS OF 21 UTC...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES S OF 11N AFFECTING INLAND
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 61W-69W.

A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED ALONG 72W S OF 16N ENTERING
N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N20W 4N33W 4N36W 4N51W. IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONVECTION AND SHOWERS IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. BESIDES THAT CONVECTION AND AS OF 21
UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQ-6N BETWEEN 46W-51W NEAR
THE NW BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER E OF TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W. THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS BEING INFLUENCED BY RIDGING WITH 10-15 KT E WINDS
AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RADAR IN FLORIDA SHOWS
AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE GULF FROM 25N-26N
ALONG 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH AXIS CENTERED
25N83W IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED TO THESE WAVES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
HAITI ALONG 21N71W 19N72W 17N74W. AS OF 21 UTC...SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 110 NM. THE RADAR IN PUERTO RICO
INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE ISLAND W OF 66W. THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W HAS FAIR
WEATHER MOSTLY ASSOCIATED TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LYING 53
NM FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND INLAND IN COSTA RICA AND
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS DESCRIBED
PREVIOUSLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND FOR THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO STAY STATIONARY BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS TO THIS AREA    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A 1016 MB DISSIPATING LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N65W. FURTHER E IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THERE IS ANOTHER
DISSIPATING LOW OF 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N58W.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO THESE LOWS AS OF 21 UTC. A
SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N47W 27N46W
23N45W. SHOWERS ARE E TO THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM. IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  AT THE UPPER LEVEL...A
RIDGE IS W OF 40W AND A TROUGH E OF 40W. IN 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THESE WAVES TO CONTINUE THEIR WESTWARD TRACK AT A PACE OF
10-15 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS





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