[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
XXXX UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA MOVING W AT 5 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
GUINEA AT 10N13W TO 5N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N25W TO N BRAZIL AT 1S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 41W-43W...AND FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 46W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 35N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 28N80W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 80W.
ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE GULF ARE MOSTLY 10 KTS FROM VARIOUS DIRECTIONS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF...THUS THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT SE TO S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HAITI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
73W FROM 13N-19N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO BEYOND
20N BETWEEN 63W-67W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA AND THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-76W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH CLOUD IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 28N73W 24N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 26N50W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
AT 20N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO RETROGRADE TO THE W AND
DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS. ALSO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/MONTALVO




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