[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AS OF 21 UTC...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 54W AND S
OF 9N THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA MOVING W AT 5 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
8N12W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 4N18W. AS OF 21 UTC...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
13W-16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W 3N30W EQ40W TO N BRAZIL
AT 2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 36N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AT 26N80W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT
24N84W. AS OF 21 UTC...NO SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FOR THE PORTION
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO RIDGING FROM A 1011 MB HIGH
PRESSURE THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 29N93W. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE GULF FROM 10-15 KTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 75W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...THUS THE AREA
IS VOID OF ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO DRIFT SE WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT FOR
THE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NORTH EASTERN GULF KEEPING RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HAITI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
72W FROM 14N-20N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RADAR SHOWS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 75W IS
SUPPORTING BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N72W TO THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 27N73W 24N76W. AS OF 21 UTC NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG 30N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W.
THE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND TO
THE SW OF FREEPORT. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 30N45W TO 23N53W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...S OF PUERTO RICO AND ALSO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 27N E OF 12W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT AND TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE TROUGH N OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH MORE SHOWERS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR





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