[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN SECTIONS OF COASTAL BRAZIL AND SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA
ELSEWHERE OVER LAND FROM 3S TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST BETWEEN
45W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 5N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27W/28W FROM 1N TO 7N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 3N TO LAND BETWEEN 3W
AND 5W.

...DISCUSSION...

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA...THANKS
TO A 101W/102W RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR
MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE FAR WEST TEXAS...TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THROUGH 20N100W...
TOWARD THE MEXICO BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS IS HAPPENING IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LAND AND THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 60W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A SOUTH CAROLINA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N790W ALONG THE BORDER
WITH NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EMANATES FROM THE
SOUTH CAROLINA CYCLONIC CENTER AND PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO
28N74W TO 25N75W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ORIGINATES IN THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 31N79W...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A 1014 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 15N72W TO 10N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N...INCLUDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 37N46W
CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N47W...PASSING THROUGH 32N42W TO
27N47W 26N54W AND 23N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 25N41W TO 12N50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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