[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N48W 3N39W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 5N14W 6N21W AND 5N25W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 2N TO 7N. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 4N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN 2W AND 4W...FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 7W
AND 11W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT SPANS MEXICO
EVENTUALLY REACHES 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF 90W...PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N80W. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY EMANATES FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA CYCLONIC CENTER
AND PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 28N74W TO 24N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS EXTEND
FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 67W
AND 74W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND
70W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME
BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND ITS
BORDER WITH MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND A 37N46W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N46W...PASSING
THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N46W 26N54W AND 24N59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N36W TO 16N43W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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