[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon May 9 19:01:38 CDT 2011


AXNT20 KNHC 100001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL ALONG EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 13W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THESE CONDITIONS AT LOW
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW BASIN IS GENERATING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE NW BASIN N OF 14N W OF 71W SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...AND THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM MONTSERRAT ISLAND TO NEAR
15N66W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...
INCLUDING MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED TO THE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 70 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA
AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA S OF 13N.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE NW ATLC ROTATING AROUND
39N65W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N60W TO 25N67W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED W OF THE LEADING
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 32N60W TO 28N67W TO 28N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL TAKE OVER THE WEST ATLC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N29W TO 24N32W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH
TO 20N40W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE. AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ON THE WEST TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N52W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN LESSER ANTILLES ALONG MONTSERRAT ISLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net




More information about the Tropical mailing list