[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N12W 02N33W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 08W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A 1017 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...SE OF THE HIGH CENTER...E
TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING...WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER
BENIGN CONDITIONS AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. FARTHER EAST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AND THIS LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 18N55W TO 16N65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS...INCLUDING MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
THIS SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 75W. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGHING
ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
INTO A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR
09N86W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
NEAR 40N65W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N60W TO 25N68W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED W-NW OF
THE LEADING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N70W THEN WESTWARD
TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 72W AND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 72W. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AND MOVE E OF 70W BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N30W TO 24N33W THAT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 17N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N55W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N65W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 50W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 16N29W THAT IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS E OF
27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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