[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 5N8W 3N20W 1N31W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 8W-14W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 14W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N35W TO 2N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF E OF
84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016
MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N85W WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 94W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL MEANDER THERE
THROUGH THU MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ON FRI WITH THE RETURN FLOW DIMINISHING OVER THE
W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS NE VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO SE
NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 17N62W TO 14N77W THEN EXPANDING TO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISHING TUE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRI EXCEPT BECOMING FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 52W TO OVER
THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 27N62W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO 26N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB
SE OF THE ABOVE FRONT NEAR 23N53W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 30N
BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A 1004
MB LOW N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
32N36W ALONG 27N37W TO 23N44W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N29W TO 29N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 20N37W TO 16N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N50W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
TODAY AND TUE THEN DRIFT E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NE OF BERMUDA WED AND THU
INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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