[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N9W 4N18W 1N26W ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST S
OF 6N W OF 3W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-7N BETWEEN 15W-20W AND FROM 1N-3N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO OVER E TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE FAR E GULF N OF 26N E OF 85W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N85W AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N
OF 23N W OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL
MEANDER THERE THROUGH THU MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
THEN SHIFT W OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI WITH THE RETURN FLOW
DIMINISHING OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS NE VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO SE
NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W
TO 14N75W THEN EXPANDING TO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
BETWEEN 75W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADE
WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI EXCEPT BECOMING FRESH
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 55W TO OVER
THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING ALONG 27N63W TO 26N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
1015 MB HIGH IS W OF THE FRONT JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM
CONSISTING OF A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 29N36W TO 25N42W AND A
DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W ALONG 22N35W TO
16N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N51W ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH E OF THE
AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SE ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE
THEN DRIFT E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS NE OF BERMUDA WED AND THU INCREASING THE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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