[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 7N12W ALONG
5N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W CONTINUING TO NRN BRAZIL
NEAR 1S46W. STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 11W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 23W-35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 230 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N86W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS
AROUND THE HIGH WITH SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN
GULF. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC INTO THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING
AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS ESSENTIALLY
CLOUD FREE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AS WELL AS DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS COVERING THE NRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN IN ZONAL WLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-85W
INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
MOISTURE ALOFT IS ALSO BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR ANTIGUA. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONTINUING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 16N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 16N-19N E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W CONTINUING S THEN W ALONG 28N64W
26N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MASSACHUSETTS TO NEAR 31N59W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 33W-55W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN OCCLUDED
1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N40W. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE OUTERMOST TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N33W 22N36W 17N46W
CONTINUING AS A SHEARLINE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH E OF
37W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE TROUGH AND THE SHEARLINE W OF 37W. THE SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N37W 27N39W 24N43W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 36N40W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS
INFLUENCE BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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