[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 8N12W 3N22W 1N30W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
THE JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-27W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W.SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N
OF 25N W OF 95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS
THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN LATE FRI
THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE RETURN FLOW
DIMINISHING OVER THE W GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF
SAT MORNING AND REACH FROM MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI TO CORPUS
CHRISTI SAT EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN
IS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 16N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ARE PRODUCING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT N THROUGH WED AND
WEAKEN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRI...EXCEPT FRESH EASTERLIES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER
TODAY THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-80W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING ALONG 28N57W TO 25N66W. A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N61W ALONG 28N63W TO
27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE BOTH FRONTS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N. AN
UPPER LOW IS N OF 32N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W TO 26N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 21N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 20N47W 19N57W
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS WED THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. THE
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN DRIFT S-SE OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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