[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W...
CONTINUING S WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W...AND WITHIN 200 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N82W TO 23N88W CONTINUING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 22N93W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100/150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 25N. NE WINDS 10-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N THE
BOUNDARY. E WINDS 5-10 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER
REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N E OF 73W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE
TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA AND N OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N80W. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WEST ATLC INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N71W TO 28N76W INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY SECTION AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR SE FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N52W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE AROUND THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND ENTERS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N42W TO 25N46W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N53W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THESE BOUNDARIES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES S TO NEAR 28N52W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC...ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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