[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W...S
WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-7S W
OF 25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
CARRYING A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N82W 24N86W 22N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM WNW OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N. NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED N
THE FRONT. E WINDS 5-10 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER
REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N E OF 72W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE
TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA AND N OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N80W. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND WESTERN HONDURAS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
CARRYING A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N74W BECOMING WEAK STATIONARY
NEAR 28N78W INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY SECTION AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST
ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
NEAR SE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN
OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 31N52W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM 32N42W TO 24N47W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES S TO NEAR 28N52W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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