[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W EQ34W 1S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 5W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-34W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
27N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER N FLORIDA.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE W
ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER W VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 67W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N44W T0 28N45W
TO 20N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N24W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N53W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E. ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...W OF 55W TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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