[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 4N21W 1N33W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-17W...FROM
3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-29W...AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION DOMINATES THE
THE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SE GULF AT 05/1500 UTC AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM MIAMI TO S OF NAPLES ALONG
26N83W TO 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N88W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH OVER E KENTUCKY. THE FRONT OVER SE GULF WILL DISSIPATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE E GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT E OVER FLORIDA
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
AREA THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE TO
HAITI COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN NARROWING A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW ALONG 15N76W TO THE
SE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF UPPER TROUGH DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 70W AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INCLUDING
BARBADOS. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING ALONG 28N75W TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MIAMI WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N52W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
30N54W AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 30N43W TO
27N44W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N50W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N56W THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTRAL 1008 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N50W TO
31N48W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N
E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N28W. AN
E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N26W ALONG
23N38W TO 18N53W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI
MORNING AS IT SHIFTS E. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N
FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA SAT
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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