[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 4N21W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-24W AND FROM
2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 03/2100 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS PENSACOLA
FLORIDA ALONG 24N93W THEN S TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO JUST W OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 20N. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR FROM W LOUISIANA THROUGH TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE E GULF
GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TONIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA S TO ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF A LINE
FROM HAITI TO THE PANAMA CANAL. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS
PROVIDING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73W AND COUPLED WITH
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
15N72W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO 14N59W
INCLUDING BARBADOS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE NICARAGUA/NE
HONDURAS MAINLY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SLOWLY S THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL
RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-65W
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N48W ALONG 26N51W TO 23N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR
34N31W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF N
FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
S FLORIDA LATE THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net