[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-11N BETWEEN 9W-14W...AND FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN 26W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO
THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N90W ALONG 26N94W INTO THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ALONG A LINE FROM 29N92W TO 25N97W W OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 23N BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS N ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE LOUISIANA AND A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF W-NW FLOW.
MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR IS OVER THE E GULF BASIN GIVING MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT
AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W
CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N NICARAGUA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF 74W. A
SE/NW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN SE CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-79W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE E COAST OF HONDURAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS
PROVIDING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND COUPLED WITH
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO 16N72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND CLEARING
SKIES FROM A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N71W. AN UPPER
LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL TO W ATLC BETWEEN 47W-65W N OF 28N
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N49W ALONG 28N52W TO 24N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 10N E OF THE ABOVE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N30W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SHIFT E AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED MORNING AND
MOVING W TO JUST W OF BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU THEN
DISSIPATE BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON




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