[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N13W...S
WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6S-2N
BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SE
STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THIS REGION
AND ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
29N85W CONTINUING SSE TO 25N90W. THEN...IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N94W 18N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND W OF
THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM W OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMERGING OFF
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N
OF 26N. ESE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE E
GULF...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA E OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-17N E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN THIS AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE
WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS W OF HAITI AND N OF JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
COSTA RICA...WEST PANAMA...AND HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY S
THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS N
OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE UNDER OBSERVATION IS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING
ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW NEAR
34N51W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
32N45W TO 26N50W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN 80 NM W OF THE FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS
OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N52W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REST OF THE ATLC ON BOTH SIDES...ANCHORED BY A WEAKENING 1023 MB
HIGH OVER THE WEST ATLC NEAR 31N72W AND A BROAD 1023 MB HIGH
OVER THE EAST ATLC NEAR 32N26W. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND EXTEND FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE THU...THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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