[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N30W EQ37W 2S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 8W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 17W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS TO THE W GULF
OF MEXICO TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N94W 26N96W 23N98W
23N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 93W-95W. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT. SMOKE AND HAZE ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE W GULF W OF 93W TO THE COLD FRONT. 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
INLAND TEXAS SUPPORTING THE FRONT. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA THAT MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 59W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N74W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W
T0 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N62W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SE TO W AFRICA NEAR 23N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N58W
SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 32N47W TO
25N55W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...W OF 55W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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