[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W
...S WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W EQ30W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-8S BETWEEN 28W-35W. A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF WEST AFRICA THROUGH LIBERIA
AND COTE D'IVOIRE IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EAST TEXAS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
CONTINUING SSE TO S OF TAMPICO ALONG 25N95W 20N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING OIL PLATFORMS INDICATE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SSE WINDS 10-20 KT
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE E
OF THE FRONT AS WELL...DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. WITHIN THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 20N68W TO 14N70W. THE TROUGH AXIS LACKS OF
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AT SURFACE...WHICH IS BETTER DEPICTED ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINE GFS MODEL ANALYSIS. THIS SYSTEMS IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY A COMBINATION OF A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET N
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES INCLUDING THE WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W...FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE TRADES ARE BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR
34N57W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
32N50W TO 27N53W TO 23N60W. THEN...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N60W TO 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS OUR
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST
OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST ATLC NEAR
32N72W AND A BROAD 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLC NEAR 35N37W.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO
THE ATLC S OF 21N BETWEEN 67W-72W FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH
MENTIONED IN CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. CONVECTION IN THIS REGION
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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