[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N17W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF THE ITCZ TO
THE EQUATOR AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/1500 UTC EXTENDS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS FROM JUST S OF GALVESTON TO BETWEEN CORPUS
CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE THEN INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E
OF THE FRONT AND W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDS AN AXIS N ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE LOUISIANA GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW
COVERING THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 87W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM N
ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO 28N90W. AN
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF CENTERED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN GIVING MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE MORNING AND FROM
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE SE GULF THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W CENTERED ALONG THE
N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF 80W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N67W THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 17N68W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS
PROVIDING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND COUPLED WITH
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 14N-20N E OF 80W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 14N E OF 65W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA TO NE
NICARAGUA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W
THROUGH TUE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN DISSIPATE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUE AND MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN
50W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 27N62W TO 25N70W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
MARYLAND. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N42W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S
AND SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN
SHIFT E WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
WED MORNING AND MOVING W TO JUST W OF BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THU THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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